The global rise in food commodity prices is passing through strongly to the consumer prices that households pay for these products. Further, the current episode has seen a more widespread increase in food items than other historical periods of stress in these markets. The results of an...

I study a model a futures market model with imperfectly competitive traders, some precluded to trade spot (financial traders), some not (physical traders). I first show that, suprisingly, introducing futures makes physical traders worse off without financial traders, because physical traders...

This paper proposes an EEMD-Hurst-LSTM prediction method based on the ensemble learning framework, which is applied to the prediction of typical commodities in China's commodity futures market. This method performs ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) on commodity futures prices, and...

Empirical evidence shows that in a labor market characterized by a severe degree of informality, unemployment insurance (UI) has different effects that most of the literature, based on developed countries, address. First, UI takers are incentivized to work in the informal sector while collecting...

This paper provides evidence that parents accumulate savings to insure their children against income risk. I refer to this behavior as dynastic precautionary saving and quantify its extent using matched parent-child pairs from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and exploiting variation in income...

For a firm that cannot raise external funds, cash on hand serves as precautionary saving. We derive a closed-form expression for the target level of cash on hand in the presence of persistent cash flows. Contrary to conventional wisdom, a mean-preserving increase in the volatility of cash flow...