It is rare for the forecasts of one economic forecasting model to always be more accurate than the forecasts from an alternative model. This suggests the possibility of implementing a switching strategy that chooses, at each point in time, the forecasting model that is expected to be most...

This paper compares the role of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in advanced and emerging economies. Using a model with a hierarchical structure we capture the variability of GDP response to policy shocks both between and within the groups of advanced and emerging countries. Our results provide...

The Eurosystem staff forecasts are conditional on the financial markets, the global economy and fiscal policy outlook, and include expert judgement. We develop a multi-country BVAR for the four largest countries of the euro area and we show that it provides accurate conditional forecasts of...