This paper contributes to previous research on the efficient integration of forecasters' narratives into business cycle forecasts. Using a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model, I quantify 19,300 paragraphs from German business cycle reports (1998-2021) and use...

This paper proposes a novel method to uncover shifting thematic priorities in textual business cycle reports and links them to macroeconomic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage qualitative business cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes from 1970-2017 to...

This paper proposes a novel method to uncover shifting thematic priorities in textual business cycle reports and links them to macroeconomic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage qualitative business cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes from 1970-2017 to...

This paper contributes to previous research on the efficient integration of forecasters' narratives into business cycle forecasts. Using a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model, I quantify 19,300 paragraphs from German business cycle reports (1998-2021) and use...

Are all forecasters the same? Expectations models incorporating information rigidities typically imply forecasters are interchangeable which predicts an absence of systematic patterns in individual forecast behavior. Motivated by this prediction, we examine the European Central Bank's Survey of...

I contribute to previous research on the efficient integration of forecasters' narratives into business cycle forecasts. Using a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model, I quantify 19,300 paragraphs from German business cycle reports (1998-2021) and classify the...

Are all forecasters the same? Expectations models incorporating information rigidities typically imply forecasters are interchangeable which predicts an absence of systematic patterns in individual forecast behavior. Motivated by this prediction, we examine the European Central Bank's Survey of...

I contribute to previous research on the efficient integration of forecasters' narratives into business cycle forecasts. Using a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model, I quantify 19,300 paragraphs from German business cycle reports (1998-2021) and classify the...

I propose a novel approach to uncover business cycle reports' priorities and relate them to economic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage quantitative business-cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes since 1970 to estimate the proportions of latent topics in...

I propose a novel approach to uncover business cycle reports' priorities and relate them to economic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage quantitative business-cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes since 1970 to estimate the proportions of latent topics in...