Probability forecasts of binary events are often gathered from multiple models and averaged to provide inputs regarding uncertainty in important decision-making problems. Averages of well calibrated probabilities are underconfident, and methods have been proposed to make them more extreme. To...

This study documents the SNB's ARIMA model based on disaggregated CPI data used to produce inflation forecasts over the short-term horizon, and evaluates its forecasting performance. Our findings suggest that the disaggregate ARIMA model for the Swiss CPI performed better than relevant...

This paper examines the forecasting approach of foreign trade unit value indices followed in the compilation of quarterly national accounts of Italy. Total imports and exports indices are indirectly obtained from the aggregation of ARIMA forecasts of disaggregated components, derived from the...