The unpredictable onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant downward revisions of economic forecasts for 2020 worldwide. During the pandemic, the health policy measures announced at short notice hampered the forecast ability. The following recovery was interrupted by Russia's invasion of...

This paper compares the renowned GARCH model with a novel one, the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model in terms of forecasting performance. Considering the gap in the literature, this study focuses on the Turkish stock and FX markets. The analysis covers 25 years (1999-2023), of which...

This study presents an examination of the predictive power of narrative reports from German economic institutes beyond traditional quantitative forecasts in anticipating economic recessions and directional changes in the business cycle. I transform qualitative narratives into quantitative...