Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces...

Introduction -- ARMA models -- Forecasting stationary processes -- Estimation of Mean and Autocovariance Function -- Estimation of ARMA Models -- Spectral Analysis and Linear Filters -- Integrated Processes -- Models of Volatility -- Multivariate Time series -- Estimation of Covariance Function...

The study is aimed at determining the oscillators of crisis manifestations when the Russian economy tries to make transition to the path for accelerating technological development and forming an innovative economy. Short-term cycles were determined in the development of the Russian economy from...