When inflation picks up, central banks are most concerned that the de-anchoring of inflation expectations and the … ignition of wage-price spirals will trigger inflation dynamic instability. However, such scenarios do not materialize in the … updated according to the actual inflation process, with indexed wages, and persistent inflation shocks. In these cases, a more …

We document that inflation risk in the U.S. varies significantly over time and is often asymmetric. To analyze the … direction of inflation risks. We perform counterfactual analyses using a quantitative general equilibrium model to evaluate the … implications of incorporating real-time estimates of the balance of inflation risks into monetary policy communications and …

Under inflation forecast targeting, central banks such as the ECB adjust policy to keep expected inflation on target …. We evaluate the ECB’s inflation forecasts: they are unbiased and efficient but contain little information at forecast … horizons beyond three quarters. In a New Keynesian model with transmission lags, inflation forecast targeting is indeed …

This study examines the dynamic relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic performance in … macroeconomic implications under Mexico's inflation-targeting regime. The results indicate a significant and positive link between … past inflation and future uncertainty, underscoring the importance of maintaining low and stable inflation to contain …

household inflation expectations after accounting for professional forecasts and observable fundamentals. Using survey data, U … zero lower bound (ZLB), conditioning on household inflation uncertainty. The shock raises inflation, uncertainty, and … rise in inflation uncertainty dampens or can even reverse these effects. A New Keynesian model with belief shocks …