When inflation picks up, central banks are most concerned that the de-anchoring of inflation expectations and the … ignition of wage-price spirals will trigger inflation dynamic instability. However, such scenarios do not materialize in the … updated according to the actual inflation process, with indexed wages, and persistent inflation shocks. In these cases, a more …

We document that inflation risk in the U.S. varies significantly over time and is often asymmetric. To analyze the … direction of inflation risks. We perform counterfactual analyses using a quantitative general equilibrium model to evaluate the … implications of incorporating real-time estimates of the balance of inflation risks into monetary policy communications and …

We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges that have been observed worldwide in the last three … decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation surges tend to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation exceeding that … of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are initially unexpected but followed by a gradual catch-up of average …

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to … measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected … of inflation from the 2% target on ITC. In contrast to the symmetry of the ECB's inflation target, we find that ITC is …

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to … measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected … of inflation from the 2% target on ITC. In contrast to the symmetry of the ECB's inflation target, we find that ITC is …

initial macroeconomic conditions of the simulations correspond to the high inflation environment of early 2022. The simulation … rational expectations for all Taylor rule parametrisations. Under hybrid expectations, the inflation rate is much more … persistent than under the rational expectations; three years is not enough to reach the inflation target of two percent, even for …

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to … measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected … of inflation from the 2% target on ITC. In contrast to the symmetry of the ECB's inflation target, we find that ITC is …