This paper examines the causal effect of supply constraints on inflation expectations, using a survey experiment conducted with a representative sample of German adults. Respondents first reported their prior beliefs about both official and personal inflation. They were then presented with...

This paper provides background information on the questionnaires and basic descriptive statistics for a representative survey of the German population, conducted on our behalf by Dynata in February-March 2025. The survey covers a range of topics related to inflation and economic issues,...

This paper provides background information on the questionnaires and basic descriptive statistics for a representative survey of the German population, conducted on our behalf by Dynata in February-March 2025. The survey covers a range of topics related to inflation and economic issues,...

This paper examines the causal effect of supply constraints on inflation expectations, using a survey experiment conducted with a representative sample of German adults. Respondents first reported their prior beliefs about both official and personal inflation. They were then presented with...

We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges that have been observed worldwide in the last three decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation surges tend to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are...

Using representative household surveys conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic in two emerging economies, Thailand and Vietnam, we examine the relationship between inflation expectations and consumption. In both countries, our results show an insignificant relationship between expected inflation...

Inflation expectations are a crucial variable for central banks. However, empirically examining their properties is challenging. This paper juxtaposes the properties of consumer and professional expectations. It also assesses the degree of forward- and backward-lookingness and the information...