We build and estimate a dynamic model of teenagers' choices of schooling and crime, incorporating four factors that may contribute to the different paths taken by different teenagers: heterogeneous endowments, unequal opportunities, uncertainties about one's own ability, and contemporaneous...

We show that updates to macroeconomic expectations among professional forecasters exhibit an offsetting pattern where increases in current-quarter predictions lead to decreases in three quarter ahead predictions. We further document evidence of individual overreaction at the quarterly frequency...

We build and estimate a dynamic model of teenagers' choices of schooling and crime, incorporating four factors that may contribute to the different paths taken by different teenagers: heterogeneous endowments, unequal opportunities, uncertainties about one's own ability, and contemporaneous...

We introduce information frictions into a tractable quantitative multi-country multi-sector model with global value chains. Producers in a sector do not perfectly observe contemporaneous shocks to other countries and sectors, and their output decisions respond to their idiosyncratic beliefs...

We show that updates to macroeconomic expectations among professional forecasters exhibit an offsetting pattern where increases in current-quarter predictions lead to decreases in three quarter ahead predictions. We further document evidence of individual overreaction at the quarterly frequency...