The article presents a long-term macro-model of the US trade balance that allows for agents with rational expectations to learn about the key parameters affecting the currency forecast. This allows for a dynamic that is a plausible middle-ground between the standard alternatives of either...

Relations between national public and private savings, domestic investment, and the current account are analyzed with the Global Econometric Model (National Institute, London). Simulation results obtained with this full modeling approach for the US, Japan, Germany and the UK are compared with...