We define a class of not necessarily linear C0-semigroups (Pt)t≥0 on Cb(E) (more generally, on Cκ(E):=1κCb(E), for some growth bounding continuous function κ) equipped with the mixed topology τM1 for a large class of topological state spaces E. In the linear case we prove that such...

This working paper was written by Yin-wong Cheung (University of California, Santa Cruz) and Ulf G. Erlandsson (Lund University).This article presents a systematic and extensive empirical study on the presence of Markov switching dynamics in three dollar-based exchange rates. A Monte Carlo...

A Markov-switching model is fit for eighteen exchange rates at quarterly and monthly frequencies. This model fits well in-sample at the quarterly frequency for many exchange rates. By the mean-squared-error or mean-absolute-error criterion. the Markov model does not generate superior forecasts...

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of age-cohort survival curves under the assumption that the instantaneous mortality intensity is driven by an affine jump-diffusion (AJD) process. Advantages of an AJD specification of mortality dynamics include the availability of closed-form...

In this paper we develop the Gerber-Shiu theory for the classic and dual discrete risk processes in a Markovian (regime switching) environment. In particular, by expressing the Gerber-Shiu function in terms of potential measures of an upward (downward) skip-free discrete-time and discrete-space...

This paper assesses Brazil’s real convergence (1822-2019) analysis unit root tests and Markov Regime-Switching (MS) models in three different scenarios: towards (i) other six Latin American countries (LA6); (ii) Portugal; and (iii) the technological frontier country, the US. The extended unit...

We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden state, we use hierarchical mixtures of distributions in the...

This paper proposes a novel finite-state Markov chain approximation method for Markov processes with continuous support. The method can be used for both uni- and multivariate processes, as well as non-stationary processes such as those with a life-cycle component. The method is based on...

Predicting the near-future delay with accuracy for trains is momentous for railway operations and passengers’ traveling experience. This work aims to design prediction models for train delays based on Netherlands Railway data. We first develop a chi-square test to show that the delay evolution...

We study the characterization of the identified set of parameters in infinite time horizon dynamic games, with only imposing weak assumptions on the information structure. In particular, we impose an assumption on the minimum amount of information the agents have about the payoff types. Our goal...