Onel, Gulcan; Karali, Berna - Agricultural and Applied Economics Association - AAEA - 2014
forecasts of basis, i.e., spot price minus the futures price. Recent literature in this area has applied nonlinear time … another. These parametric nonlinear models, however, involve complex estimation problems, and may diminish forecasting … evidence of nonlinear effects in basis. In general, generalized additive models seem to yield better forecasts of basis. …