exercises demonstrate the importance of integrating model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty to address potential model …

long term interest rate cycles and allows rapid year-to-year corrections in the returns. We also address the parameter … uncertainty in these models. <p> We then develop a stochastic model for mortality. The chosen mortality forecasting model is the …

time dimension needs to increase for the parameter uncertainty to decrease. ln this paper, assuming that the model … contribution of the parameter uncertainty can represent a large percentage of the total uncertainty involved in factor extraction …