The paper presents the scale and directions of inter-voivodship migration in Poland in selected years of the 2000-2020 period. The study focused on permanent residence migration and aimed to identify areas of migration attractiveness and migration catchment voivodships. To study the stochastic...

This study proposes a new discrete distribution in the mixed Poisson paradigm to obtain a distribution that provides a better fit to skewed and dispersed count observation with excess zero. The cubic transmutation map is used to extend the exponential distribution, and the obtained continuous...

Building on the success of Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) in separately forecasting the return components of the stock market, this paper examines the links between economic regimes and these components to predict the aggregate U.S. stock market. We propose a three-step methodology that we call...

This paper demonstrates that well-established biases in decision making under uncertainty can generate poverty traps. A theoretical framework is developed to demonstrate that: i) probability weighting and ambiguity attitude can lead individuals to erroneously undervalue profitable investments,...

Site-adaptation corrects long-term satellite-derived solar irradiance datasets, which improve solar power system modeling by reducing the risks in performance estimation. This study begins with a data-efficient approach to probabilistic site-adaptation, using simple model averaging to quantify...

Purpose - When the probability of each model is known, a natural idea is to select the most probable model. However, in many practical situations, the exact values of these probabilities are not known; only the intervals that contain these values are known. In such situations, a natural idea is...

Probabilities of default (PDs) of loans are of central importance for financial stability. We analyze the PDs, reported quarterly by German financial institutions to Deutsche Bundesbank. The development of PDs is modelled as an AR process of PD changes and an initial PD. Panel regressions show...