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causal forces 1 combining contrary trends 1 damped trends 1 exponential smoothing 1 judgment 1 rule-based forecasting 1 selecting methods 1
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Armstrong, J. Scott 1 Collopy, Fred 1
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Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time Series Extrapolation
Armstrong, J. Scott; Collopy, Fred - 1993
This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in extrapolation. It does so by representing information about causality and using this domain knowledge to select and combine forecasts. We use five categories to express causal impacts upon trends: growth,...
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