This study investigates asymmetric mean reversion in the real returns of large- and small-cap US stocks for one- to ten-year periods. The return distributions are estimated with 1,000 random block bootstraps of 240-month returns from 1926-2017. Large-cap stock returns show significant asymmetric...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...