This paper implements an affine term structure model that accommodates "unspanned" macro risks for the Euro area, i.e. distinct from yield-curve risks. I use an averaging-estimator approach to obtain a better estimation of the historical dynamics of the pricing factors, thus providing more...

We analyze the speed of mean reversion (k) in the convenience yield and the spot price volatility for 7 US commodities between 1989-2012. In the hog market k is large, soybeans exhibit the lowest values. While for 5 of 7 commodities κ is lower in the more recent period (2005-2012) than in the...

The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only...