In this paper, we conduct a large-scale field experiment to investigate the manipulability of prediction markets. The main experiment involves randomly shocking prices across 817 separate markets; we then collect hourly price data to examine whether the effects of these shocks persist over time....

This document provides recommendations for the statistical recording of capacity allocation and balancing markets, which are crucial for addressing deviations between supply and demand in electricity markets. It also includes guidance on transactions related to the electricity congestion income...

This document provides recommendations for the statistical recording of capacity allocation and balancing markets, which are crucial for addressing deviations between supply and demand in electricity markets. It also includes guidance on transactions related to the electricity congestion income...

Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only federally licensed prediction market in the United States. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 contracts, we provide the first systematic evidence on its pricing. Kalshi's contract prices are informative and improve in accuracy as markets...