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The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions

Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier - 2022

Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334505

The Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms

Candia, Bernardo; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2022

Using surveys of firms around the world, we review existing evidence on how firms form their macroeconomic expectations. Several facts stand out. First, the mean inflation forecasts of firms often deviate significantly from those of professional forecasters and households. Second, disagreement...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210070

The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms : Measurement, Determinants, and Implications

Weber, Michael; D'Acunto, Francesco; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; … - 2022

Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how they shape households' and firms' economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210074

The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers

McClure, Ethan M. L.; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2022

Using responses obtained through the Nielsen Homescan panel survey, we explore the differences between managers' and non-managers' expectations and perceptions of inflation and unemployment. By and large, managers and non-managers exhibit similar average inflation and unemployment expectations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191080

The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the COVID19 Pandemic

Weber, Michael; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier - 2022

As the pandemic spread across the U.S., disagreement among U.S. households about inflation expectations surged along with the mean perceived and expected level of inflation. Simultaneously, the inflation experienced by households became more dispersed. Using matched micro data on spending of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814415

Expectations Formation and Forward Information

Goldstein, Nathan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2022

We propose a model where forecasters have access to noisy signals about the future (forward information). In this setting, information varies not only across agents but also across horizons. As a result, estimated persistence of forecasts deviates from persistence of fundamentals and the ability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814486

Fiscal Multipliers in the COVID19 Recession

Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; McCrory, Peter B. - 2021

In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the current environment with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794559

Firms' Inflation Expectations : New Evidence from France

Savignac, Frédérique; Gautier, Erwan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2021

Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still positive, bias than households and display less...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660054

Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations

Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sergeyev, Dmitriy - 2021

We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a New Keynesian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696405

Quality and Price Setting of High-Tech Goods

Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Talavera, Oleksandr; Nam Hoai Vu - 2021

This paper investigates the link between product quality and price setting for central processing units (CPUs). Using thousands of price quotes from a popular price-comparison website, we find that market fundamentals, such as the number of sellers, median price, share of convenient prices and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482608

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