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Where Do STEM Graduates Stem From? The Intergenerational Transmission of Comparative Skill Advantages

Hanushek, Eric Alan; Jacobs, Babs; Schwerdt, Guido; … - 2023

The standard economic model of occupational choice following a basic Roy model emphasizes individual selection and comparative advantage, but the sources of comparative advantage are not well understood. We employ a unique combination of Dutch survey and registry data that links math and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250203

Measuring the Tolerance of the State : Theory and Application to Protest

Andirin, Veli; Neggers, Yusuf; Shadmehr, Mehdi; … - 2022

We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the regime's tolerance as the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334386

Was Pandemic Fiscal Relief Effective Fiscal Stimulus? Evidence from Aid to State and Local Governments

Clemens, Jeffrey; Hoxie, Philip G.; Veuger, Stan - 2022

We use an instrumental-variables estimator reliant on variation in congressional representation to analyze the effects of federal aid to state and local governments across all four major pieces of COVID-19 response legislation. Through September 2021, we estimate that the federal government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334387

Labor Market Effects of Short-Cycle Higher Education Programs : Lessons from Colombia

Ferreira, María M.; Galindo, Camila; Urzua, Sergio - 2022

This paper estimates the heterogeneous labor market effects of enrolling in higher education short-cycle (SC) programs. Expanding access to these programs might affect the behavior of some students (compliers) in two margins: the expansion margin (students who would not have enrolled in higher...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334396

Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electricity : The Case of Air Toxics Standards

Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Langer, Ashley; Zhang, Wendan - 2022

Legislation often empowers agencies to develop rules, but legal challenges may create uncertainty, thereby increasing firm costs, delaying policy objectives, and affecting externalities. This paper investigates policy uncertainty surrounding the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard, estimating a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334514

When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume

Diebold, Francis X.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Göbel, Maximilian - 2022

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477224

Monetary-Based Asset Pricing : A Mixed-Frequency Structural Approach

Bianchi, Francesco; Ludvigson, Sydney C.; Ma, Sai - 2022

We integrate a high-frequency monetary event study into a mixed-frequency macro-finance model and structural estimation. The model and estimation allow for jumps at Fed announcements in investor beliefs, providing granular detail on why markets react to central bank communications. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210100

Estimating General Equilibrium Spillovers of Large-Scale Shocks

Huber, Kilian - 2022

Large-scale financial and macroeconomic shocks directly affect some firms and households and indirectly impact others through general equilibrium spillovers. In this paper, I describe how researchers can estimate spillovers directly using quasi-experimental or experimental variation. I then...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191002

Idiosyncratic Equity Risk Two Decades Later

Campbell, John Y.; Lettau, Martin; Malkiel, Burton G.; … - 2022

This paper reviews the literature on idiosyncratic equity volatility since the publication of "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk" in 2001. We respond to replication studies by Chiah, Gharghori, and Zhong and by Leippold and Svaton, and we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191011

Trends in Retirement and Retirement Income Choices by TIAA Participants : 2000-2018

Brown, Jeffrey R.; Poterba, James M.; Richardson, David P. - 2022

This paper documents trends over the last two decades in retirement behavior and retirement income choices by participants in TIAA, a large and mature defined contribution plan with a wide range of withdrawal options. Between 2000 and 2018, the average retirement age rose by approximately 1.3...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191041