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Exploring Political Budget Cycles in the EU-27

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Leal, Frederico Silva - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015615919

Financial Literacy and Saving Behavior: Global Cross-Sectional Evidence

Afonso, António; Rodrigues, Eduardo - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015616066

Climate Resilience and the Adaptation Trap: A Macroeconomic Framework for Joint Fiscal–External Sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015616090

Exploring political budget cycles in the EU-27

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Leal, Frederico Silva - 2026

Using quarterly data for the period Q1:2000–Q4:2024, the study examines whether elections in EU‑27 member states shape the composition and timing of fiscal policy strategies, and how political, fiscal and institutional constraints condition these dynamics. Employing a two‑way...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015593132

Climate resilience and the adaptation trap : a macroeconomic framework for joint fiscal-external sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar; … - 2026

Climate change is reshaping sovereign risk and macroeconomic stability by amplifying fiscal and external fragilities. This paper develops a unified framework to assess how climate vulnerability and resilience jointly influence fiscal–external solvency. We construct a market-based...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015586922

Financial literacy and saving behavior : global cross-sectional evidence

Afonso, António; Rodrigues, Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão - 2026

Savings play a critical role in both individual financial well-being and economic development. This article examines the impact of financial literacy, income, educational level, and age on saving decisions across 136 countries, using data from the Global Financial Inclusion Database (2021) and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015587535

Sovereign ratings and risk pricing, agency divergences in the European Union

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Gkonkas, Periklēs; … - 2026

Using annual EU-27 data for 1995-2024, we examine whether sovereign ratings mainly reflect common macro-fiscal fundamentals or whether agency-specific departures from that benchmark are also priced into sovereign funding conditions. Pooled ordered probits and a machine-learning diagnostic layer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015675116

Inflation targeting and zero lower bound risk

Afonso, António; Zorzi, Leonardo - 2026

In the aftermath of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, a growing body of research questioned the conventional inflation-targeting framework that has long guided monetary policy, arguing that the inflation targets adopted by major central banks may have been set too low. We evaluate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10016083717

Fiscal and External Sustainability: A Two-Step Time-Varying Granger Causality Assessment

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Coelho, José Carlos; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015339538

Stock and Sovereign Returns Linkages: Time-Varying Causality and Extreme-Quantile Determinants

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Grabowski, Wojciech; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015339562