How damaging is a "trade war" compared to a "military war" or a "war of words"? Aggregate conflict indicators cannot say, because they treat missile strikes, sanctions, and diplomatic protests as equivalent. We build a monthly bilateral indicator from GDELT event data, calibrated against...

This paper asks why openness has been such a strong catalyst for catch-up growth in some regions or countries, while in others openness has been followed by stalled convergence, divergence, or stagnation. We conclude that "openness" in today's geoeconomically fragmented world is much more than...

The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze the patterns of recessions and recoveries of 101 advanced and developing economies. We identify the turning points of recessions and expansions between...

This paper is a case study of the exchange rate adjustments during the first week following the swapping US election results. We compute three measures of exchange rate depreciation: the maximum depreciation during the 1st trading day after November 6 UTC 0:00 to capture the reaction on the...

Expansionary fiscal policies have increased significantly following the subprime crisis in 2007 and the COVID-19 crisis, leading to fiscal dominance concerns, where a growing share of monetary authorities may be forced to deviate from policy targets to accommodate fiscal policies. Meanwhile,...