This paper provides a critical examination of the empirical basis of the output convergence debate in the light of recent developments in the analysis of dynamic heterogeneous panels with interactive effects. It shows that popular tools such as Barro's cross-country regressions and two-way fixed...

The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has once again exposed a structural weakness at the heart of the global energy system. Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through this narrow waterway. Any interruption carries immediate and far-reaching economic...

This paper provides a new methodology for the analysis of multiple long run relations in panel data models where the cross section dimension, n, is large relative to the time series dimension, T. For panel data models with large n researchers have focussed on panels with a single long run...

This paper provides a new methodology for the analysis of multiple long run relations in panel data models where the cross section dimension, n, is large relative to the time series dimension, T. For panel data models with large n researchers have focussed on panels with a single long run...

This document is a follow up to the paper by Ahmed and Pesaran (2020, AP) and reports state-level forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election. It updates the 3,107 county level data used by AP and uses the same machine learning techniques as before to select the variables used in forecasting...

This document is a follow up to the paper by Ahmed and Pesaran (2020, AP) and reports state-level forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election. It updates the 3,107 county level data used by AP and uses the same machine learning techniques as before to select the variables used in forecasting...