How borrowers respond to future changes in the interest rate on their debt matters for the transmission of monetary policy and for household financial stability. Combining bank data, a letter RCT, and a survey, we study this question in the context of the German mortgage market, where since 2022...

How borrowers respond to future changes in the interest rate on their debt matters for the transmission of monetary policy and for household financial stability. Combining bank data, a letter RCT, and a survey, we study this question in the context of the German mortgage market, where since 2022...

Using surveys of households across thirteen countries, we study how much individuals would be willing to pay to eliminate business cycles. These direct estimates are much higher than traditional measures following Lucas (2003): on average, households would be prepared to sacrifice around 5-6% of...

This paper examines the impact of political polarization on public trust in the Fed and its influence on macroeconomic expectations. Using a large-scale survey experiment which we fielded on President Trump's 2025 inauguration day, we study how households form beliefs about the Fed regarding its...

We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations using Germany as a laboratory. Households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today, even after controlling for known determinants of historical...

This paper assesses the European Central Bank (ECB)'s monetary policy stance as of June 2025, analysing its evolving interest rate path, balance sheet developments, and communication strategy. It highlights the transition toward a neutral policy rate, ongoing quantitative tightening, persistent...

We exploit Germany's temporary three-percentage-point VAT cut in the second half of 2020 to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on household consumption expenditures and their perceived pass-through of the tax change into prices, and a RANK...

Monetary policy in the euro area faces significant challenges due to the evolving economic landscape marked by the return of inflation, financial instability risks, and the consequences of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) to the operational framework of monetary policy. This article...

Exposure to extreme weather events and other adverse shocks has led to an increasing number of humanitarian crises in developing countries in recent years. These events cause acute suffering and compromise future welfare by adversely impacting human capital formation among vulnerable...

Public works programs (PWPs) have long been a common choice to protect people in need by providing temporary jobs and income. They promise more than a paycheck: They offer dignity, visible community investments, and the prospect of long-term progress. But today’s world is changing fast....