We show that China’s real estate climate index (RECI) can be used to forecast the aggregate stock market return. It outperforms popular return predictors both in- and out-of-sample, especially at the monthly horizon. Additionally, RECI’s predictive ability is stronger among stocks of small...

We show that China’s real estate climate index (RECI) can be used to forecast the aggregate stock market return. It outperforms popular return predictors both in- and out-of-sample, especially at the monthly horizon. Additionally, RECI’s predictive ability is stronger among stocks of small...

Investors typically cover a limited number of stocks and have some degree of correlation in their information sets. However, the role of this type of correlation in determining the return comovement between stock pairs is largely unexplored. In this study, we propose a new measure of common...

Previous studies have extensively confirmed that superstition has a wide range of impacts on economically consequential decisions. The underlying mechanisms, however, remain largely unexplored. In particular, superstitions can influence either people’s endogenous risk preferences or subjective...

We investigate the impacts of new COVID-19 infections on stock returns within China's unique zero-COVID policy framework. We document a remarkable negative pattern: a COVID-19 outbreak within a city adversely affects the performance of local firms in a nonlinear fashion. This effect intensifies...

We investigate the impacts of new COVID-19 infections on stock returns within China’s unique zero-COVID policy framework. We document a remarkable negative pattern: a COVID-19 outbreak within a city adversely affects the performance of local firms in a nonlinear fashion. This effect...

In Chinese culture, the zodiac year of one’s birth is often associated with bad luck. This astrological superstition dates back more than two thousand years and is still prevalent in modern Chinese society. Using novel experimental techniques, we find evidence suggesting that people in China...

Superstition has a wide range of impacts on economic decisions such as investment, career choice and insurance purchase. Taking the Chinese zodiac year as an example, we apply experimental methods to study two important channels through which superstition affects subjects’ economic decisions....

How do online platforms contribute to inclusive growth policies? In this study, we examine how the East-West Poverty Alleviation Partnership, which pairs rich cities in East China with economically disadvantaged cities in West China, affects e-commerce trade. Using proprietary trade-flow data...