Based on a time-varying factor-augmented vector autoregression, we demonstrate that the propagation mechanism of monetary policy disturbances differs across disaggregate components of personal consumption expenditures. While many disaggregate prices rise temporarily in response to a monetary...

The aim of this paper is to gauge the importance of foreign demand, supply and interest rate shocks on the UK economy and assess how their role has changed over time. To that end we devise a time-varying factor augmented VAR model that captures the relationship between 17 industrialised...

Using a fully specified DSGE model, this paper investigates the relationship between a central bank's policy objectives and the stabilization bias. The model is estimated using data from New Zealand. Results indicate that the size of the stabilization bias is nearly twice as large for a small...

Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based on the assessment of current and future economic conditions. Crucially, these assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Through a small open economy structural vector autoregression model, government spending is found to have weak and largely...

The COVID-19 pandemic as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine have had profound effects on the global energy landscape, with some of the longer-lasting effects still unfolding. This paper discusses how these events have reshaped the supply side of the global oil market by focusing on...