This article proposes an improved method for the construction of principal components in macroeconomic forecasting. The underlying idea is to maximize the amount of variance of the original predictor variables that is retained by the components in order to reduce the variance involved in...

This paper demonstrates that the Conference Board’s Composite Leading Index (CLI) has significant real-time predictive ability for Industrial Production (IP) growth rates at horizons from one to six months ahead over the period 1989–2009. A popular but unrealistic analysis, which combines...

This paper demonstrates that the Conference Board's Composite Leading Index (CLI) has significant real-time predictive ability for Industrial Production (IP) growth rates at horizons from one to six months ahead over the period 1989-2009. A popular but unrealistic analysis, which combines...

A new method of leading index construction is proposed, which explicitly takes into account the purpose of using the index for forecasting a coincident economic indicator. This so-called principal covariate index combines the need for compressing the information in a large number of individual...

One of the many areas in which correspondence analysis (CA) is an effective method, concerns seriation problems.For example, CA is a well-known technique for the seriation of archaeological assemblages. A problem with the CA seriation solution, however, is that only a relative ordering of the...

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show that intentional demand forecast bias can improve warehouse capacity planning and labour efficiency. It presents an empirical methodology to detect and implement forecast bias. Design/methodology/approach: A forecast model integrates historical...