The standard macroeconomic view links the equilibrium level of foreign exchange rates to the state of the macroeconomic fundamentals. Any deviation from the equilibrium level is viewed as temporary since there are forces ensuring quickly mean-reverting dynamics. The aim of this article is to...

We test for nonlinear effects of asset prices on the fiscal policy of three major European economies (the UK, Italy and Spain). We model primary government spending and government revenue as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS). We find that while in Italy fiscal...

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">ABSTRACT</title> <p>This paper provides empirical evidence that there is no convergence between the GDP per-capita of the developing countries since 1950. Relying upon recent econometric methodologies (non-stationary long-memory models, wavelet models and time-varying factor...</p>

This article contributes to the recent empirical literature on financial repression and focuses on the French case since the end of World War II. We find that the fiscal adjustment needed to lower the debt ratio has been smaller during the years of financial repression in comparison with those...

This introduction presents a selection of articles dealing with the issue of measuring the fiscal and financial vulnerabilities in the advanced economies. These articles were presented at a conference organized jointly by the Banque de France and BETA in Strasbourg on 13--14 September. The...

This paper focuses on the following question: has the global financial stress in the US markets during the subprime crisis induced a persistent volatility of Indian equity stocks? We answer this question using sector-based data and we propose a simple stochastic volatility model augmented with...

[eng] Non-linear Cointegration : a Discussion of Methodology.. The aim of this paper is to present recent contributions extending the classical concept of cointegration to non-linear cases. Thus, we look at a joint study of non-stationary and non-linear phenomena and offer a complete...

This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5's business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycle synchronization trying to disentangle between intraregional and interregional synchronization by considering the important role of China, Japan and the US in...

In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price dynamics and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point...