Purpose – The purpose of this study is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for the South African economy to enable the gauging of financial conditions and to better understand the macro-financial linkages in the country. The global financial crisis that began in 2007-2008...

This paper analyses the ‘ripple’ effect of house prices in large-, medium- and small-sized houses of five major metropolitan areas of South Africa—namely, Cape Town, Durban Unicity, Greater Johannesburg, Port Elizabeth/Uitenhage and Pretoria—based on available...

This paper considers the forecasting performance of a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The results are compared with those of a wide selection of competing models, which include a linear DSGE model and a variety of vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The parameters...

This paper investigates the dynamic causal link between exports and economic growth using both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests. We use annual South African data on real exports and real gross domestic product from 1911-2011. The linear Granger causality result shows no evidence of...

Forecasting aggregate retail sales may improve portfolio investors׳ ability to predict movements in the stock prices of retail chains. This paper uses 26 (23 single and 3 combination) forecasting models to forecast South Africa׳s aggregate seasonal retail sales. We use data from...