This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in...

"An NBER digest for this paper is available.There are two leading views on how financial crises turn into recessions. The first view highlights the importance of a troubled banking sector that cannot provide credit to domestic firms. The second view stresses the relevance of short-term borrowing...