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Chernov, Mikhail; Graveline, Jeremy; Zviadadze, Irina - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

includes (i) Gaussian shocks with stochastic variance, (ii) jumps up and down in the exchange rate, and (iii) jumps in the … probability of jumps in variance is increasing in the variance but not related to interest rates. Many of the jumps in exchange … rates are associated with macroeconomic and political news, but jumps in variance are not. Overall, jumps account for 25% of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083487

Regression Based Estimation of Dynamic Asset Pricing Models

Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K.; Moench, Emanuel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

We propose regression based estimators for beta representations of dynamic asset pricing models with an affine pricing kernel specification. We allow for state variables that are cross sectional pricing factors, forecasting variables for the price of risk, and factors that are both. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011186634

How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions from the economic effects of party control of government to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009003379

Analyzing Strongly Periodic Series in the Frequency Domain: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches with Applications

Artis, Michael J; Clavel, Jose Garcia; Hoffmann, Mathias; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

Strongly periodic series occur frequently in many disciplines. This paper reviews one specific approach to analyzing such series viz. the harmonic regression approach. In this paper, the five major methods suggested under this approach are critically reviewed and compared, and their empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504395

On the Selection of Forecasting Models

Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean squared error (PMSE) in simulated out-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504404

Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved

Aruoba, Boragan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

We document the empirical properties of revisions to major macroeconomic variables in the United States. Our findings suggest that they do not satisfy simple desirable statistical properties. In particular, we find that these revisions do not have a zero mean, which indicates that the initial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504505

The Behaviour of the Real Exchange Rate: A Re-examination Using Finite Sample Approach

Kuo, Biing-Shen; Mikkola, Anne - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997

The results of this paper complement the recent findings of real exchange rates as stationary processes. The standard procedure of applying a battery of unit root tests can be problematic since the tests are sensitive to the specifics of the time-series process. The novelty of the approach we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504540

A Time Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in Stock Markets of Transition Economies

Rockinger, Michael; Urga, Giovanni - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

This paper introduces a model, based on the Kalman filter framework, which allows for time varying parameters, latent factors, and a general GARCH structure for the residuals. With this extension of the Bekaert and Harvey (1997) model it is possible to test if an emerging stock market becomes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504665

Does Market Organization Speed Up Market Stabilization? First Lessons From the Budapest and Warsaw Stock Exchanges

Zalewska, Ania - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

This paper investigates whether different systems of financial market organization influence the way in which newly created stock markets become more (weak-form) efficient. The author conducts a detailed comparative analysis of stocks listed on the Budapest and Warsaw Stock Exchanges, 1991-98,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497754

Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-war Growth Evidence from 74 Countries

Ben-David, Dan; Papell, David - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995

Many countries, both industrialized and developing, appear to have experienced a slowdown in economic growth. We examine a large sample of countries and find that a majority exhibit a significant structural break in their post-war growth rates. In nearly all of these cases the break was followed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498062