In this paper an ex-post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the "news" model of exchange rate determination. A general finding is that the "news" formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex post exchange rate forecasts. Often the...

We propose an exchange rate model that can explain both the observed volatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rate movements and thus in some measure resolves Rogoff’s (1996) purchasing power parity puzzle. Our analysis reconciles the well-known difficulties in beating the...

In this paper we argue that modelling the trend component in real GNP as a random walk is inconsistent with its interpretation as productivity growth. As an alternative we specify the trend as an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) process, whose impulse response function follows...