This paper explores to what extent the magnitude and speed of the contagion effects that materialized in East Asia in the second half of 1997 may have had "real" underpinnings, in the sense that the pattern of production, consumption and trade increased the vulnerability of East Asian countries...

This paper considers fiscal policy coordination in a European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We use an overlapping generations model which leads to departures from Barro-Ricardian neutrality. In our calibrated model, however, we find these departures to be rather small. Two models are...

We propose a method for estimating a subset of the parameters of a structural rational expectations model by exploiting changes in policy. We define a class of models, midway between a vector autoregression and a structural model, that we call the recoverable structure. We provide an application...

This paper develops a welfare-based model of monetary policy in an open economy. We focus on the extent to which monetary policy should be employed in maintaining the exchange rate. The traditional approach maintains that exchange rate flexibility is desirable in the presence of real...

Most of the literature on the independence of the Central Bank assumes only one policy instrument is available: monetary policy. If we introduce fiscal policy as well, when preferences may differ among policy-makers, the situation is radically different. In this case fiscal policy will weaken...

We explore some empirical properties of gross international investment positions. In order to provide income-smoothing, net investment income should negatively covary with GDP. Moreover, to maximize stabilization of GNP in the face of GDP fluctuations, the yield on foreign assets should move...

This Paper, a thorough revision of Spagnolo (1996), addresses the following questions: What is the optimal design for a set of self-enforcing international policy agreements? How many and which issues should each agreement regulate? Are GATT’s constraints on issue linkage (cross-retaliation)...

We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit...

The European Monetary Union will involve socialization of existing seigniorage wealth of national central banks. This socialization will create windfall gains for countries with relatively low monetary bases such as France and the United Kingdom and will be disadvantageous for countries like...

We examine proposals to introduce in the European Community national insurance against unevenly distributed shocks. This would operate differently from tax and government spending activities that now yield regional insurance within countries, since the latter are mainly designed for other...