Showing 1 - 10 of 114
In this paper, we show how an investor can incorporate uncertainty about expected returns when choosing a mean … investor is neutral to uncertainty, we consider the case where the investor has multiple priors and is averse to uncertainty … model aversion to uncertainty via a minimization over the set of priors. The multi-prior model has several attractive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791415
In this paper, we show how an investor can incorporate uncertainty about expected returns when choosing a mean … investor is neutral to uncertainty, we consider the case where the investor has multiple priors and is averse to uncertainty … model aversion to uncertainty via a minimization over the set of priors. The multi-prior model has several attractive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124485
their growth. Economic theory suggests uncertainty can cause firms to delay investments until uncertainty is resolved. We …Firms in many developing countries cite macroeconomic instability and political uncertainty as major constraints to … macroeconomic and political uncertainty. Demand for macroeconomic shock insurance was high; 36.7 percent of microentrepreneurs in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084029
between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the Gilboa-Schmeidler maxmin with multiple priors framework to lenders …, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood … include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009144737
In this paper we propose empirical methods for detecting and identifying misspecifications in DSGE models. We introduce wedges in a DSGE model and identify potential misspecification via forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) and marginal likelihood analyses. Our simulation results based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083456
The U.S. Energy Information Administration regularly publishes short-term forecasts of the price of crude oil. Traditionally, such out-of-sample forecasts have been largely judgmental, making them difficult to replicate and justify, and not particularly successful when compared with naïve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084729
Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662254
We use robust control techniques to study the effects of model uncertainty on monetary policy in an estimated, semi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136758
Macro models generally assume away heterogeneous welfare in assessing policies. We investigate here within two aggregative models - one with a representative agent, the other a long-used forecasting model of the UK - whether allowing for differences in welfare functions (specifically between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497769
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomic modeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083870