Adrian, Tobias; Estrella, Arturo; Shin, Hyun Song - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2010
activity. The economic rationale for this forecasting power usually appeals to expectations of future interest rates, which …One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real … affect the slope of the term structure. In this paper, we propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of …