to construct quarterly gross credit flows (credit expansion and credit contraction series) for the U.S. banking system … during the period 1999:Q1-2008:Q4 and provide new evidence on changes in lending. We show that credit expansion, as defined … in this paper, began declining during the first half of 2008 while credit contraction began steeply increasing only …

This paper argues that self-fulfilling beliefs in credit conditions can generate endoge- nously persistent business … productivity shocks. Capital from less productive firms is lent to more productive ones in the form of credit secured by collateral … and also as unsecured credit based on reputation. A dynamic complemen- tarity between current and future credit …

financial variables support the use of credit spreads to identify asymmetries in the responses of economic activity and prices …

In U.S. data 1981–2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP, while secured firm credit is … acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to … secured credit. In this paper we develop a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model in which unsecured firm credit arises …