The rapid accumulation of private debt is widely viewed as a major risk to financial and economic stability. This paper systematically and comprehensively assesses the effect of private debt buildup on economic growth. In the spirit of Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) that separately examine the...

This paper empirically examines the impact of public debt shocks on output and inflation in 34 emerging market economies (EMEs) using panel local projections over the period 2000 to 2022. The estimated results show that real gross domestic product (GDP) falls significantly after an unanticipated...

The global economic crisis has revealed that growth in East Asia is highly vulnerable to slowdown in exports to major advanced economies. This paper shows that in precrisis years, at least one third of growth in the Peoples Republic of China was due to exports, and this proportion was even...

Lax monetary policy in the United States has been pointed out as one of the responsible factors behind the recent global crisis. Similar loose monetary conditions also prevailed in many European countries before the crisis and were argued to be among the accommodating factors behind the run-up...

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the issues, policies, and political economy of infrastructure investment, and a review of empirical literature of the relationship between growth and infrastructure. Empirical estimations using the growth accounting framework for a panel of 123...

We explore how demographic changes in the Asia and Pacific region are likely to influence economic growth and other features of the regional economy. While many low-income countries in the region will continue to experience a demographic dividend, over time population aging could drag on...

Severe disruptions in school education during the coronavirus disease (COVID–19) pandemic has impacted children through their formative years which will affect their employment opportunities and earning potential for many years after school ages. This paper examines the medium-to-long-term...

Climate-related natural disaster shocks are expected to rise as the earth is getting warmer, which will adversely affect growth prospects globally. Current robust estimates of the effects of typhoons and droughts point to both short- and long-term declines in national incomes compared to...

This paper estimates the growth impact of disasters, with a focus on developing Asia and its subregions. It finds that severe disasters slow down annual growth in the Pacific island countries by between 1 and 2 percentage points on average. This should come as no surprise, given these economies'...