We investigate the extent to which misperceptions about the economy can become self-reinforcing and thereby contribute to time-varying macroeconomic dynamics. To do so, we build a New Keynesian model with long-horizon expectations and dynamic predictor selection. Because agents solve...

In this paper, we compare two approaches to modelling behaviour under non-rational expectations in a benchmark New Keynesian model. The ‘Euler equation' approach modifies the equations derived under the assumption of rational expectations by replacing the rational expectations operator with an...

We explore the effects of forward guidance at the zero lower bound when there is uncertainty over the lift-off date arising from: (i) the imperfect credibility of time-inconsistent forward-guidance promises; (ii) incomplete communication. We use a simple New Keynesian model to demonstrate that a...

Motivated by policies implemented by some central banks in response to the financial crisis, we use a simple New Keynesian model to study a particular form of forward guidance. We assume that the policy maker makes a state-contingent commitment to hold the policy rate at the zero lower bound...

This paper provides novel empirical evidence showing that foreign financial developments are a powerful predictor of domestic banking crises. Using a new data set for 38 advanced and emerging economies over 1970–2011, we show that credit growth in the rest of the world has a large positive...

We use a no-arbitrage term structure model of equity yields computed from the prices of dividend swaps to estimate the yields on hypothetical bonds with cash-flows indexed to the level of US GDP. This provides a novel approach for estimating the possible relative cost of conventional and...

Within-firm variation of corporate bond spreads around the Covid-19 outbreak shows that US dollar-denominated bonds experienced larger increases in spreads relative to non-dollar bonds, especially at short maturities. Differently, in the non-dollar sample it was the spreads of longer maturity...

The global financial crisis prompted the rapid development of macro-prudential frameworks and an increased reliance on borrower-based policy tools, which influence the demand for credit. This paper studies the optimal design of one such tool, a loan-to-value (LTV) limit, and its implications for...