This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in expectations of future prices affect dynamics. In a real business cycle model, the theoretical framework amplifies and...

This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations. Because of learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations analysis, the set of policies consistent with...

This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in expectations of future prices affect dynamics. In a real business cycle model, the theoretical framework amplifies and...

This paper evaluates whether an estimated, structural, small open economy model of the Canadian economy can account for the substantial influence of foreign-sourced disturbances indentified in numerous reduced-form studies. The analysis shows that the benchmark model - and a number of variants...

This paper evaluates whether an estimated, structural, small open economy model of the Canadian economy can account for the substantial influence of foreign-sourced disturbances indentified in numerous reduced-form studies. The analysis shows that the benchmark model - and a number of variants...

Two impediments to effective monetary policy operation include illiquidity in bond markets and the move towards the zero bound of interest rates. Either or both of these scenarios have been evident in many countries in the last decade, raising the suggestion that alternative means of enacting...

This paper considers Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in a context where the permanent and transitory components both follow a Markov switching process. Our approach insorporates Markov switching into a single source of error state-space framework, allowing business cycle asymmetries and regime...

This paper proposes a simple framework that generalizes the timing structure of macroeconomic (as well as other) games. Building on alternative move games and models of "rational inattention" the players' actions may be rigid, ie optimally chosen to be infrequent. This rigidity makes the game...

This paper assesses the effects of asymmetric information and agency costs in credit markets in an open economy with a floating exchange rate and sticky prices. A decline in agency costs lowers the cost of external finance and increases the long-run level of steady state investment, capital and...

The typical New-Keynesian small-open-economy model has qualitative features and monetary-policy prescriptions similar to their original closed-economy counterparts - i.e. complete stablization of domestic inflation is sufficient for optimal policy. We consider a version of the model here where...