Showing 1 - 10 of 10
Recent research in macroeconomics emphasizes the role of wage rigidity in accounting for the volatility of unemployment fluctuations. We use worker-level data from the CPS to measure the sensitivity of wages of newly hired workers to changes in aggregate labor market conditions. The wage of new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084442
This Paper explains the divergent behaviour of European and US unemployment rates using a job market-matching model of the labour market with an interaction between shocks and institutions. It shows that a reduction in TFP growth rates, an increase in real interest rates, and an increase in tax...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666515
According to Ljungqvist and Sargent (1998), high European unemployment since the 1980s can be explained by a rise in economic turbulence, leading to greater numbers of unemployed workers with obsolete skills. These workers refuse new jobs due to high unemployment benefits. In this Paper we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666702
We propose a method for conducting inference on impulse responses in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) when the impulse response is not point identified because the number of equality restrictions one can credibly impose is not sufficient for point identification and/or one imposes sign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096099
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083961
The contribution of generalized method of moments (Hansen and Singleton, 1982) was to allow frequentist inference regarding the parameters of a nonlinear structural model without having to solve the model. Provided there were no latent variables. The contribution of this paper is the same. With...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083999
Does economic theory help in forecasting key macroeconomic variables? This article aims to provide some insight into the question by drawing lessons from the literature. The definition of "economic theory" includes a broad range of examples, such as accounting identities, disaggregation and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084122
We propose a method for modifying a given density forecast in a way that incorporates the information contained in theory-based moment conditions. An example is "improving" the forecasts from atheoretical econometric models, such as factor models or Bayesian VARs, by ensuring that they satisfy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320402
In this paper we utilize White's Reality Check bootstrap methodology (White (1997)) to evaluate simple technical trading rules while quantifying the data-snooping bias and fully adjusting for its effect in the context of the full universe from which the trading rules were drawn. Hence, for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662282
Data sharing is common practice in forecasting experiments in situations where fresh data samples are difficult or expensive to generate. This means that forecasters often analyze the same data set using a host of different models and sets of explanatory variables. This practice introduces...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666706