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Fire Sales and Ex Ante Valuation of Systemic Risk : A Financial Equilibrium Networks Approach

Bougheas, Spiros P.; Spencer, Adam - 2022

ante risk assessment and derive risk premia for every balance sheet item where liabilities are differentiated according to … priority rights. We find that risk premia reflect both idiosyncratic risk and risk of contagion (network risk). Moreover, we … show that network risk magnifies the gap between the risk premia of equity and debt. We also perform comparative statics …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241311

Policy Coordination Under Model Disagreement and Uncertainty

Hefeker, Carsten - 2019

What are the incentives for governments to coordinate their policies internationally when there is model disagreement and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and show that uncertainty not only determines the type of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892108

The Impact of Aggregate Uncertainty on Firm-Level Uncertainty

Easaw, Joshy Z.; Grimme, Christian - 2021

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239562

Ambiguous Protection

Gründler, Klaus; Hillman, Arye L. - 2021

Import regulations are globally the most prevalent form of intervention in international trade. The regulations should, under rules of the WTO, protect consumers and the environment but can be used to protect producers. We investigate the ambiguity of intent. We set out a model that when applied...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013246466

Investment Responses to Tax Policy Under Uncertainty

Guceri, Irem - 2019

How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very similar investment subsidies were implemented in the same country, two years apart: once during a period of economic stability, and once during a period of very high uncertainty....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859606

Policy Competition, Imitation and Coordination Under Uncertainty

Hefeker, Carsten - 2022

The paper analyzes under what circumstances policymakers experiment with policies with uncertain outcomes, when they prefer to imitate policies initiated in other countries, and when they prefer to coordinate policies internationally. Policymakers have private costs of active policies and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289693

Sectoral Uncertainty

Castelnuovo, Efrem; Tuzcuoglu, Kerem; Uzeda, Luis - 2022

We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. Our results...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243086

News Shocks Under Financial Frictions

Görtz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John D.; Zanetti, Francesco - 2021

We examine the dynamic effects and empirical role of TFP news shocks in the context of frictions in financial markets. We document two new facts using VAR methods. First, a (positive) shock to future TFP generates a significant decline in various credit spread indicators considered in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314862

Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty : Evidence Based on Us Data

Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2019

How do short and long term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962-2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867014

Global Uncertainty

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2021

We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013246469