This paper This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a long-run level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

Instrumental variable estimators can be severely biased in finite samples when the degree of overidentification is high or when the instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous regressors. This paper proposes an estimator based on the use of the principal components of the instruments...