We use nonlinear empirical methods to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of monetary policy shocks. We find that the transmission on output, goods prices and asset prices is stronger in a low growth regime, contrary to the findings of Tenreyro and Thwaites (2016). The impact is stronger...

This paper first provides empirical evidence that labour market outcomes for the less educated, who also tend to be poorer, are substantially more volatile than labour market outcomes for the well-educated, who tend to be richer. We estimate job finding rates and separation rates by educational...

In order to explain the joint fluctuations of output, inflation and the labor market, this paper first develops a general equilibrium model that integrates a theory of equilibrium unemployment into a monetary model with nominal price rigidities. Then, it estimates a set of structural parameters...

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rational inattention by households and firms. Consumption responds slowly to interest rate changes because households decide to pay little attention to the real interest rate. Prices respond quickly to some shocks and slowly to other...

We propose a monetary model in which the unemployed satisfy the official US definition of unemployment: they are people without jobs who are (i) currently making concrete efforts to find work and (ii) willing and able to work. In addition, our model has the property that people searching for...

In this paper, we investigate the presence of non-linearities in the transmission of geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks. Our methodology involves incorporating a non-linear function of the identified shock into a VARX model and examining its impulse response functions and historical decomposition....

This paper develops Bayesian econometric methods for posterior inference in non-parametric mixed frequency VARs using additive regression trees. We argue that regression tree models are ideally suited for macroeconomic nowcasting in the face of extreme observations, for instance those produced...

This paper provides closed-form formulae for computing the asymptotic standard errors of the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions for stable VAR models by means of the d-method. These standard errors can be used to construct asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated...

This paper applies the identified VAR methodology to synthetic euro area data from 1980 till 1998 to study the macro-economic effects of an unexpected change in monetary policy in the euro area. The focus is on the area-wide monetary transmission. It is shown that the overall macro-economic...