the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area …

inflation while declaring monetary aggregates largely irrelevant. Critics, however, have argued that these models need to be … modified to account for observed money growth and inflation trends, and that monetary trends may serve as a useful cross … persistent errors in monetary policy and sustained trends in money growth and inflation. If interest rate prescriptions derived …

qualitative and quantitative information on subsequent inflation. The usefulness of monetary analysis is contrasted to weaknesses … in modeling monetary policy and inflation with respectively short-term interest rates and real activity measures. The … analysis sheds light on the recent change in inflation volatility and persistence as well as on the Phillips curve flattening …

-term inflation volatility in response to exogenous shocks can be optimal; that the optimal response to adverse financial shocks is to … lower interest rates, if not at the zero bound, and to engineer a short period of inflation; that the Taylor rule may …

inflation and the extent of real wage rigidity but that these effects depend on the definition of reference norms (e.g. how …

the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area …

Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below two percent, limited welfare losses …-run Phillips curve between inflation and unemployment and a trade-off between price distortions and output hysteresis that change … the welfare-maximizing inflation level. For a plausible set of parameters, the optimal inflation target is in excess of …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate …