With the aim of constructing predictive distributions for daily returns, we introduce a new Markov normal mixture model in which the components are themselves normal mixtures. We derive the restrictions on the autocovariances and linear representation of integer powers of the time series in...

With the aim of constructing predictive distributions for daily returns, we introduce a new Markov normal mixture model in which the components are themselves normal mixtures. We derive the restrictions on the autocovariances and linear representation of integer powers of the time series in...

This paper uses a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) framework to estimate the pass-through of unexpected gas price supply shocks on HICP inflation in the euro area and its four largest economies. In comparison to oil price shocks, gas price shocks have approximately one-third...

This paper introduces a Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR (BQFAVAR) to examine the asymmetric effects of monetary policy throughout the business cycle. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the model effectively captures non-linearities in impulse responses. Analysis of aggregate...

In this article, we present a new perspective on forecasting technology adoption, focused on the extensive margin of adoption of multiple digital technologies in multiple countries. We do this by applying a Bayesian hierarchical structure to the seminal model of technology diffusion. After...

We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework...

When capital in the banking system becomes depleted, the degree to which financial intermediation and the macroeconomy are adversely affected is likely to depend on the financial and macroeconomic environment. However, existing studies either assume that the effects of bank capital shocks are...

In this paper, we assess how risk-sharing channels have evolved over time in the United States and the Euro Area, and whether they have operated as "complements" or "substitutes". In particular, we focus on the capital channel (income from cross-border ownership of productive assets), the credit...

We contribute to the empirical literature on the impact of shocks to bank capital in the euro area by estimating a Bayesian VAR model identified with sign restrictions. The variables included in the VAR are those typically used in monetary policy analysis, extended to include aggregate banking...

This paper is the first to comprehensively assess the impact of the euro area's non-standard monetary policy measures on south-eastern Europe. By employing bilateral BVAR models, I am able to estimate the response of output and prices for each country, as well as to shed more light on potential...