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Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive Models

Binder, Michael - 2013

The purpose of the paper is to develop a Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive (RS-GVAR) model. The RS-GVAR model allows for recurring or non-recurring structural changes in all or a subset of countries. It can be used to generate regime-dependent impulse response functions which are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078535

Bayesian Inference in Cointegrated VAR Models : With Applications to the Demand for Euro Area M3

Warne, Anders - 2021

The paper considers a Bayesian approach to the cointegrated VAR model with a uniform prior on the cointegration space …. Building on earlier work by Villani (2005b), where the posterior probability of the cointegration rank can be calculated … the marginal likelihood identity is used for calculating these probabilities, a point estimator of the cointegration space …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317369

The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the euro area

Duarte, Rita; Marques, Carlos Robalo - 2009

This paper investigates the dynamics of aggregate wages and prices in the United States (US) and the Euro Area (EA) with a special focus on persistence of real wages, wage and price inflation. The analysis is conducted within a structural vector error-correction model, where the structural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605113

Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles

Gerba, Eddie; Żochowski, Dawid - 2017

The Great Recession has been characterised by the two stylized facts: the buildup of leverage in the household sector in the period preceding the recession and a protracted economic recovery that followed. We attempt to explain these two facts as an information friction, whereby agents are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011804383

Modelling loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area

Kok, Christoffer; Marqués-Ibáñez, David; Rossi, Carlotta - 2009

We model the determinants of loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area. Using the Johansen (1992) methodology, we identify three cointegrating relationships. These relationships are interpreted as the long-run loan demand, investment and loan supply equations. The short-run dynamics...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605035

A Stable Model for Euro Area Money Demand: Revisiting the Role of Wealth

Beyer, Andreas - 2009

In this paper we present an empirically stable money demand model for Euro area M3. We show that housing wealth is an important explanatory variable of long-run money demand that captures the trending behaviour of M3 velocity, in particular its shift in the first half of this decade. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605157