Showing 1 - 10 of 518
We introduce a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency VAR model for the aggregate euro area labour market that features a structural identification via sign restrictions. The purpose of this paper is twofold: we aim at (i) providing reliable and timely forecasts of key labour market variables and (ii)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013323905
The paper provides a novel Bayesian methodological framework to estimate structural VAR (SVAR) models with recursive identification schemes that allows for the inclusion of over-identifying restrictions. The proposed framework enables the researcher to elicit the prior on the non-zero...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097952
This paper provides new evidence on the effects of government spending shocks and the fiscal transmission mechanism in the euro area for the period 1980-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we investigate changes in the macroeconomic impact of government spending shocks using time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316199
This paper investigates the importance of labor market institutions for inflation and unemployment dynamics. Using the New Keynesian framework we argue that labor market institutions should be divided into those institutions that cause Unemployment Rigidities (UR) and those that cause Real Wage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144855
standard set of labour-market related variables (employment,real compensation, productivity and capital stock) and exogenous … negatively affects real compensation, has negligible employment effects and leads to higher labour productivity. These impacts …-specific employment and productivity shocks. Impact elasticities suggest strong intra-sectoral linkages for employment and capital stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777698
force component, a trend labour productivity component, a long-run inflation rate and a trend hours worked component. The … decomposition of endogenous variables in trends and cycles, for shock decomposition, for incorporating external judgement, and for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132048
We construct and explore a new quarterly dataset covering crisis episodes in 40 developed countries over 1970–2010. First, we examine stylized facts of banking, debt, and currency crises. Banking turmoil was most frequent in developed economies. Using panel vector autoregression, we confirm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099231
Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s' United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank – which is near-universally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153230
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have recently become standard tools for policy-oriented analyses. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real-time forecasts from a richly-specified DSGE model to those from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155104
estimated and how shock identification is performed, and compares panel VARs to other approaches used in the literature to deal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088488