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Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive Models

Binder, Michael - 2013

The purpose of the paper is to develop a Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive (RS-GVAR) model. The RS-GVAR model allows for recurring or non-recurring structural changes in all or a subset of countries. It can be used to generate regime-dependent impulse response functions which are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078535

Bayesian Inference in Cointegrated VAR Models : With Applications to the Demand for Euro Area M3

Warne, Anders - 2021

The paper considers a Bayesian approach to the cointegrated VAR model with a uniform prior on the cointegration space …. Building on earlier work by Villani (2005b), where the posterior probability of the cointegration rank can be calculated … the marginal likelihood identity is used for calculating these probabilities, a point estimator of the cointegration space …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317369

Mending the Broken Link : Heterogeneous Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Pass-Through

Altavilla, Carlo - 2017

We analyse the pass-through of monetary policy measures to lending rates to firms and households in the euro area using a unique bank-level dataset. Bank balance sheet characteristics such as the capital ratio and the exposure to sovereign debt are responsible for the heterogeneity of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963918

The Impact of Credit Supply Shocks in the Euro Area : Market-Based Financing Versus Loans

Barauskaite, Kristina; Nguyen, Anh D. M.; Rousová, Linda; … - 2022

Using a novel quarterly dataset on debt financing of non-financial corporations, this paper provides the first empirical evaluation of the relative importance of loan and market-based finance (MBF) supply shocks on business cycles in the euro area as a whole and in its five largest countries. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405076

Modelling loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area

Kok, Christoffer; Marqués-Ibáñez, David; Rossi, Carlotta - 2009

We model the determinants of loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area. Using the Johansen (1992) methodology, we identify three cointegrating relationships. These relationships are interpreted as the long-run loan demand, investment and loan supply equations. The short-run dynamics...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605035

Deflationary Financial Shocks and Inflationary Uncertainty Shocks : An SVAR Investigation

De Santis, Roberto A.; Van der Veken, Wouter - 2022

What are the economic implications of financial and uncertainty shocks? We show that financial shocks cause a decline in output and goods prices, while uncertainty shocks cause a decline in output and an increase in goods prices. In response to un-certainty shocks, firms increase their markups,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076665

House Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area : Evidence from Structural VARs

Nocera, Andrea - 2017

We use a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection structural VAR model to investigate the heterogeneous impact of housing demand shocks on the macro-economy and the role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission, across euro area countries. A novel set of identification...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954350

VAR for VaR : Measuring Tail Dependence Using Multivariate Regression Quantiles

White, Jr., Halbert L. - 2015

This paper proposes methods for estimation and inference in multivariate, multi-quantile models. The theory can simultaneously accommodate models with multiple random variables, multiple confidence levels, and multiple lags of the associated quantiles. The proposed framework can be conveniently...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020592

Modelling Global Trade Flows : Results from a GVAR Model

Bussière, Matthieu - 2015

This paper uses a Global Vector Auto-Regression (GVAR) model in a panel of 21 emerging market and advanced economies to investigate the factors behind the dynamics of global trade flows, with a particular view on the issue of global trade imbalances and on the conditions of their unwinding. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039364

Are Asset Price Data Informative About News Shocks? A DSGE Perspective

Iskrev, Nikolay I. - 2018

Standard economic intuition suggests that asset prices are more sensitive to news than other economic aggregates. This has led many researchers to conclude that asset price data would be very useful for the estimation of business cycle models containing news shocks. This paper shows how to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916362