We propose a two-stage estimation procedure to identify the effects of time-invariant regressors in a dynamic version of the Hausman-Taylor model. We first estimate the coefficients of the time-varying regressors and subsequently regress the first-stage residuals on the time-invariant regressors...

This paper proposes a new and robust methodology to obtain conditional density forecasts, based on information not contained in an initial econometric model. The methodology allows to condition on expected marginal densities for a selection of variables in the model, rather than just on future...

This paper compares impulse responses to monetary policy shocks in the euro area countries before the EMU and in the New Member States (NMS) from central-eastern Europe. We mitigate the small sample problem, which is especially acute for the NMS, by using a Bayesian estimation that combines...

We estimate the natural rate of interest for the US and the euro area in a semi-structural model comprising a Taylor rule. Our estimates feature key elements of Laubach and Williams (2003), but are more consistent with using conventional policy rules: we model inflation to be stationary, with...

The paper provides a novel Bayesian methodological framework to estimate structural VAR (SVAR) models with recursive identification schemes that allows for the inclusion of over-identifying restrictions. The proposed framework enables the researcher to elicit the prior on the non-zero...

A statistical decision rule incorporating judgment does not perform worse than a judgmental decision with a given probability. Under model misspecification, this probability is unknown. The best model is the least misspecified, as it is the one whose probability of underperforming the judgmental...

The paper considers a Bayesian approach to the cointegrated VAR model with a uniform prior on the cointegration space. Building on earlier work by Villani (2005b), where the posterior probability of the cointegration rank can be calculated conditional on the lag order, the current paper also...

This paper analyses euro area non-financial corporations (NFC) money demand, both from a macro and a microeconomic point of view. At a macro level, money holdings are modelled as a function of real gross added value, the price level, the long-term interest rate on bank lending to non-financial...