Showing 1 - 10 of 141
This paper examines the dynamics of volatility transmission between EU emission allowances (EUA) and oil markets using a range-based volatility measure. We propose a multivariate conditional autoregressive range model with bivariate lognormal distribution to capture volatility dynamics and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729837
We employ a large dataset of physical inventory data on 21 different commodities for the period 1993–2011 to empirically analyze the behavior of commodity prices and their volatility as predicted by the theory of storage. We examine two main issues. First, we analyze the relationship between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010588244
In order to shed new light on the influence of volume and economic fundamentals on the long-run volatility of the Chinese stock market we follow the methodology introduced by Engle et al. (2009) and Engle and Rangel (2008) to account for the effects of macro fundamentals, and augment it with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010709340
The study provides evidence in favor of the price range as a proxy estimator of volatility in financial time series, in the cases that either intra-day datasets are unavailable or they are available at a low sampling frequency.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010608267
The paper aims to suggest the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. The findings of this paper … support the superiority of high frequency based volatility forecasting models over traditional GARCH models. MIDAS and HAR …-RV-CJ models are found to be the best among high frequency based volatility forecasting models. Moreover, MIDAS model performs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048965
improvements in forecasting performance. The overnight returns exhibit some in-sample forecasting power. However, the accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048839
This paper investigates the empirical relevance of structural breaks in forecasting stock return volatility using both … return volatility in South Africa. However, based on the out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that even though there …-horizon forecasting of stock return volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010588219
inflation forecasts. Our forecasting approach is based on extracting the factors from the subcomponents of the CPI at the … disaggregated price data improves forecasting performance. The forecasts of the factor models that extract the information from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010573296
In this paper, we examine the predictive ability, both in-sample and the out-of-sample, for South African stock returns using a number of financial variables, based on monthly data with an in-sample period covering 1990:01 to 1996:12 and the out-of-sample period of 1997:01 to 2010:04. We use the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010573379
-of-sample forecasting ability to examine the significance of each macro variable in explaining the stock returns behaviour. In addition, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010608280